Abstract

"Wisdom of crowds" refers to the phenomenon that the average opinion of a group of individuals on a given question can be very close to the true answer. It requires a large group diversity of opinions, but the collective error, the difference between the average opinion and the true value, has to be small. We consider a stochastic opinion dynamics where individuals can change their opinion based on the opinions of others (social influence α), but to some degree also stick to their initial opinion (individual conviction β). We then derive analytic expressions for the dynamics of the collective error and the group diversity. We analyze their long-term behavior to determine the impact of the two parameters (α,β) and the initial opinion distribution on the wisdom of crowds. This allows us to quantify the ambiguous role of social influence: only if the initial collective error is large, it helps to improve the wisdom of crowds, but in most cases it deteriorates the outcome. In these cases, individual conviction still improves the wisdom of crowds because it mitigates the impact of social influence.

Abstract

We propose a novel sequence prediction method for sequential data capturing node traversals in graphs. Our method builds on a statistical modelling framework that combines multiple higher-order network models into a single multi-order model. We develop a technique to fit such multi-order models in empirical sequential data and to select the optimal maximum order. Our framework facilitates both next-element and full sequence prediction given a sequence-prefix of any length. We evaluate our model based on six empirical data sets containing sequences from website navigation as well as public transport systems. The results show that our method out-performs state-of-the-art algorithms for next-element prediction. We further demonstrate the accuracy of our method during out-of-sample sequence prediction and validate that our method can scale to data sets with millions of sequences.

Abstract

The mobility of scientists between different universities and countries is important to foster knowledge exchange. At the same time, the potential mobility is restricted by geographic and institutional constraints, which leads to temporal correlations in the career trajectories of scientists. To quantify this effect, we extract 3.5 million career trajectories of scientists from two large scale bibliographic data sets and analyze them applying a novel method of higher-order networks. We study the effect of temporal correlations at three different levels of aggregation, universities, cities and countries. We find strong evidence for such correlations for the top 100 universities, i.e. scientists move likely between specific institutions. These correlations also exist at the level of countries, but cannot be found for cities. Our results allow to draw conclusions about the institutional path dependence of scientific careers and the efficiency of mobility programs.

Abstract

We investigate a multi-agent model of firms in an R\&D network. Each firm is characterized by its knowledge stock xi(t), which follows a non-linear dynamics. It can grow with the input from other firms, i.e., by knowledge transfer, and decays otherwise. Maintaining interactions is costly. Firms can leave the network if their expected knowledge growth is not realized, which may cause other firms to also leave the network. The paper discusses two bottom-up intervention scenarios to prevent, reduce, or delay cascades of firms leaving. The first one is based on the formalism of network controllability, in which driver nodes are identified and subsequently incentivized, by reducing their costs. The second one combines node interventions and network interventions. It proposes the controlled removal of a single firm and the random replacement of firms leaving. This allows to generate small cascades, which prevents the occurrence of large cascades. We find that both approaches successfully mitigate cascades and thus improve the resilience of the R\&D network.

Abstract

It is known that individual opinions on different policy issues often align to a dominant ideological dimension (e.g. ``left'' vs. ``right'') and become increasingly polarized. We provide an agent-based model that reproduces these two stylized facts as emergent properties of an opinion dynamics in a multi-dimensional space of continuous opinions. The mechanisms for the change of agents' opinions in this multi-dimensional space are derived from cognitive dissonance theory and structural balance theory. We test assumptions from proximity voting and from directional voting regarding their ability to reproduce the expected emerging properties. We further study how the emotional involvement of agents, i.e. their individual resistance to change opinions, impacts the dynamics. We identify two regimes for the global and the individual alignment of opinions. If the affective involvement is high and shows a large variance across agents, this fosters the emergence of a dominant ideological dimension. Agents align their opinions along this dimension in opposite directions, i.e. create a state of polarization.

Abstract

We provide a general framework to model the growth of networks consisting of different coupled layers. Our aim is to estimate the impact of one such layer on the dynamics of the others. As an application, we study a scientometric network, where one layer consists of publications as nodes and citations as links, whereas the second layer represents the authors. This allows to address the question how characteristics of authors, such as their number of publications or number of previous co-authors, impacts the citation dynamics of a new publication. To test different hypotheses about this impact, our model combines citation constituents and social constituents in different ways. We then evaluate their performance in reproducing the citation dynamics in nine different physics journals. For this, we develop a general method for statistical parameter estimation and model selection that is applicable to growing multi-layer networks. It takes both the parameter errors and the model complexity into account and is computationally efficient and scalable to large networks.

Abstract

The unsupervised detection of anomalies in time series data has important applications in user behavioral modeling, fraud detection, and cybersecurity. Anomaly detection has, in fact, been extensively studied in categorical sequences. However, we often have access to time series data that represent paths through networks. Examples include transaction sequences in financial networks, click streams of users in networks of cross-referenced documents, or travel itineraries in transportation networks. To reliably detect anomalies, we must account for the fact that such data contain a large number of independent observations of paths constrained by a graph topology. Moreover, the heterogeneity of real systems rules out frequency-based anomaly detection techniques, which do not account for highly skewed edge and degree statistics. To address this problem, we introduce HYPA, a novel framework for the unsupervised detection of anomalies in large corpora of variable-length temporal paths in a graph. HYPA provides an efficient analytical method to detect paths with anomalous frequencies that result from nodes being traversed in unexpected chronological order.

Abstract

Polarization is threatening the stability of democratic societies. Until now, polarization research has focused on opinion extremeness, overlooking the correlation between different policy issues. We explain the emergence of hyperpolarization, i.e. the combination of extremeness and correlation between issues, by developing Weighted Balance Theory (WBT), a new theory of opinion formation. WBT extends Heider’s cognitive balance theory to encompass multiple weighted attitudes. We validate WBT on empirical data from the 2016 National Election Survey. Furthermore, we develop an opinion dynamics model based on WBT, which, for the first time, is able to generate hyperpolarization and to explain the link between affective and opinion polarization. In addition, our theory encompasses other phenomena of opinion dynamics, including mono-polarization and backfire effects.

Abstract

Online social networks (OSN) are prime examples of socio-technical systems in which individuals interact via a technical platform. OSN are very volatile because users enter and exit and frequently change their interactions. This makes the robustness of such systems difficult to measure and to control. To quantify robustness, we propose a coreness value obtained from the directed interaction network. We study the emergence of large drop-out cascades of users leaving the OSN by means of an agent-based model. For agents, we define a utility function that depends on their relative reputation and their costs for interactions. The decision of agents to leave the OSN depends on this utility. Our aim is to prevent drop-out cascades by influencing specific agents with low utility. We identify strategies to control agents in the core and the periphery of the OSN such that drop-out cascades are significantly reduced, and the robustness of the OSN is increased.

Abstract

We analyze an agent-based model to estimate how the costs and benefits of users in an online social network (OSN) impact the robustness of the OSN. Benefits are measured in terms of relative reputation that users receives from their followers. They can be increased by direct and indirect reciprocity in following each other, which leads to a core-periphery structure of the OSN. Costs relate to the effort to login, to maintain the profile, etc. and are assumed as constant for all users. The robustness of the OSN depends on the entry and exit of users over time. Intuitively, one would expect that higher costs lead to more users leaving and hence to a less robust OSN. We demonstrate that an optimal cost level exists, which maximizes both the performance of the OSN, measured by means of the long-term average benefit of its users, and the robustness of the OSN, measured by means of the life-time of the core of the OSN. Our mathematical and computational analyses unfold how changes in the cost level impact reciprocity and subsequently the core-periphery structure of the OSN, to explain the optimal cost level.

Abstract

We provide an agent-based model to explain the emergence of collective opinions not based on feedback between different opinions, but based on emotional interactions between agents. The driving variable is the emotional state of agents, characterized by their valence, quantifying the emotion from unpleasant to pleasant, and their arousal, quantifying the degree of activity associated with the emotion. Both determine their emotional expression, from which collective emotional information is generated. This information feeds back on the dynamics of emotional states and individual opinions in a nonlinear manner. We derive the critical conditions for emotional interactions to obtain either consensus or polarization of opinions. Stochastic agent-based simulations and formal analyses of the model explain our results. Possible ways to validate the model are discussed.

Abstract

The law of proportionate growth simply states that the time dependent change of a quantity $x$ is proportional to $x$. Its applicability to a wide range of dynamic phenomena is based on various assumptions for the proportionality factor, which can be random or deterministic, constant or time dependent. Further, the dynamics can be combined with additional additive growth terms, which can be constants, aggregated quantities, or interaction terms. This allows to extent the core dynamics into an agent-based modeling framework with vast applications in social and economic systems. The paper adopts this overarching perspective to discuss phenomena as diverse as saturated growth, competition, stochastic growth, investments in random environments, wealth redistribution, opinion dynamics and the wisdom of crowds, reputation dynamics, knowledge growth, and the combination with network dynamics.

Abstract

Communal roosting in Bechstein's bat colonies is characterized by the formation of several groups that use different day roosts and that regularly dissolve and re-merge (fission-fusion dynamics). Analyzing data from two colonies of different size over many years, we find that (i) the number of days bats stay in the same roost before changing follows an exponential distribution that is independent of the colony size, and (ii) the number and size of groups bats formed for roosting depend on the size of the colony such that above a critical colony size two to six groups of different sizes are formed. To model these two observations, we propose an agent-based model in which agents make their decisions about roosts based on both random and social influences. For the latter, they copy the roost preference of another agent which models the transfer of the respective information. Our model is able to reproduce both the distribution of stay length in the same roost and the emergence of groups of different sizes dependent on the colony size. Moreover, we are able to predict the critical system size at which the formation of different groups emerges without global coordination. We further comment on dynamics that bridge the roosting decisions on short time scale (less than one day) with the social structures observed at long time scales (more than one year).

Abstract

Leading-following behavior as a way of transferring information about the location of resources is widespread in different animal societies. However, it cannot always be observed directly. Here, we develop a general method to infer leading-following events from observational data if only the discrete appearance of individuals is recorded. Our method further allows to distinguish such events from local enhancement at the resource, such as swarming behavior in case of bats, which is another widespread way of transferring information among animals. To test our methodology, we analyze longitudinal data about the roosting behavior of Bechstein's bats from two different colonies and different years. The detection of leading-following events allows us, in a second step, to construct social networks in which nodes represent individual bats and directed and weighted links the leading-following events. We analyze the topology of these networks on the level of the colony, to see whether all individuals participate in leading-following behavior. Further, based on the leading-following network we measure the importance of individuals in this leading-following behavior by calculating different centrality measures. We find that individuals can be consistently ranked regarding their influence on others. Moreover, we identify a small set of individuals that play a central role in leading other bats to roosts. Our methodology can be used to understand the leading-following behavior and the individual impact of group members on the spread of information in animal groups in general.

Abstract

Leading-following behaviour in Bechstein's bats transfers information about suitable roost sites from experienced to inexperienced individuals, and thus ensures communal roosting. We analyze 9 empirical data sets about individualized leading-following (L/F) events, to infer rules that likely determine the formation of L/F pairs. To test these rules, we propose five models that differ regarding the empirical information taken into account to form L/F pairs: activity of a bat in exploring possible roosts, tendency to lead and to follow. The comparison with empirical data was done by constructing social networks from the observed L/F events, on which centralities were calculated to quantify the importance of individuals in these L/F networks. The centralities from the empirical network are then compared for statistical differences with the model-generated centralities obtained from $10^{5}$ model realizations. We find that two models perform well in comparison with the empirical data: One model assumes an individual tendency to lead, but chooses followers at random. The other model assumes an individual tendency to follow and chooses leaders according to their overall activity. We note that neither individual preferences for specific individuals, nor other influences such as kinship or reciprocity, are taken into account to reproduce the empirical findings.

Abstract

We consider a multi-layer network with two layers, $\_1\$, $\_2\$. Their intra-layer topology shows a scale-free degree distribution and a core-periphery structure. A nested structure describes the inter-layer topology, i.e., some nodes from $\_1\$, the generalists, have many links to nodes in $\_2\$, specialists only have a few. This structure is verified by analyzing two empirical networks from ecology and economics. To probe the robustness of the multi-layer network, we remove nodes from $\_1\$ with their inter-and intra-layer links and measure the impact on the size of the largest connected component, $F_2\$, in $\_2\$, which we take as a robustness measure. We test different attack scenarios by preferably removing peripheral or core nodes. We also vary the intra-layer coupling between generalists and specialists, to study their impact on the robustness of the multi-layer network. We find that some combinations of attack scenario and intra-layer coupling lead to very low robustness values, whereas others demonstrate high robustness of the multi-layer network because of the intra-layer links. Our results shed new light on the robustness of bipartite networks, which consider only inter-layer, but no intra-layer links.

Abstract

We propose a new measure to quantify the impact of a node $i$ in controlling a directed network. This measure, called ``control contribution'' $_(i)$, combines the probability for node $i$ to appear in a set of driver nodes and the probability for other nodes to be controlled by $i$. To calculate $_(i)$, we propose an optimization method based on random samples of minimum sets of drivers. Using real-world and synthetic networks, we find very broad distributions of $C_(i)$. Ranking nodes according to their $C_(i)$ values allows us to identify the top driver nodes that can control most of the network. We show that this ranking is superior to rankings based on other control-based measures. We find that control contribution indeed contains new information that cannot be traced back to degree, control capacity or control range of a node.

Abstract

To what extent is the citation rate of new papers influenced by the past social relations of their authors? To answer this question, we present a data-driven analysis of nine different physics journals. Our analysis is based on a two-layer network representation constructed from two large-scale data sets, INSPIREHEP and APS. The social layer contains authors as nodes and coauthorship relations as links. This allows us to quantify the social relations of each author, prior to the publication of a new paper. The publication layer contains papers as nodes and citations between papers as links. This layer allows us to quantify scientific attention as measured by the change of the citation rate over time. We particularly study how this change depends on the social relations of their authors, prior to publication. We find that on average the maximum value of the citation rate is reached sooner for authors who either published more papers, or who had more coauthors in previous papers. We also find that for these authors the decay in the citation rate is faster, meaning that their papers are forgotten sooner.

Abstract

Analyzing available FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years, we observe an increase of complexity in the international trade of maize, rice, soy, and wheat. A larger number of countries play a role as producers or intermediaries, either for trade or food processing. In consequence, we find that the trade networks become more prone to failure cascades caused by exogenous shocks. In our model, countries compensate for demand deficits by imposing export restrictions. To capture these, we construct higher-order trade dependency networks for the different crops and years. These networks reveal hidden dependencies between countries and provide an estimate of necessary stock reserves to protect countries from cascading export restrictions. They differ substantially from first order networks that do not take cascading effects into account. We find rice trade most prone to cascading export restrictions. A great number of Asian and African countries are most exposed to cascades. Noticeably, the main suppliers are similar for most of the crops: USA, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, and India. While shocks in the USA mainly affect South America and several Asian countries, the south of Africa is primarily dependent on American and Asian exporters. The north of Africa depends strongly on Europe, in particular via wheat imports.

Abstract

We quantify a social organization's potentiality, that is its ability to attain different configurations. The organization is represented as a network in which nodes correspond to individuals and (multi-)edges to their multiple interactions. Attainable configurations are treated as realizations from a network ensemble. To encode interaction preferences between individuals, we choose the generalized hypergeometric ensemble of random graphs, which is described by a closed-form probability distribution. From this distribution we calculate Shannon entropy as a measure of potentiality. This allows us to compare different organizations as well different stages in the development of a given organization. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated using data from 3 empirical and 2 synthetic systems.

Abstract

Multi-edge networks capture repeated interactions between individuals. In social networks, such edges often form closed triangles, or triads. Standard approaches to measure this triadic closure, however, fail for multi-edge networks, because they do not consider that triads can be formed by edges of different multiplicity. We propose a novel measure of triadic closure for multi-edge networks of social interactions based on a shared partner statistic. We demonstrate that our operalization is able to detect meaningful closure in synthetic and empirical multi-edge networks, where common approaches fail. This is a cornerstone in driving inferential network analyses from the analysis of binary networks towards the analyses of multi-edge and weighted networks, which offer a more realistic representation of social interactions and relations.

Abstract

Data from software repositories have become an important foundation for the empirical study of software engineering processes. A recurring theme in the repository mining literature is the inference of developer networks capturing e.g. collaboration, coordination, or communication from the commit history of projects. Most of the studied networks are based on the co-authorship of software artefacts defined at the level of files, modules, or packages. While this approach has led to insights into the social aspects of software development, it neglects detailed information on code changes and code ownership, e.g. which exact lines of code have been authored by which developers, that is contained in the commit log of software projects. Addressing this issue, we introduce git2net, a scalable python software that facilitates the extraction of fine-grained co-editing networks in large git repositories. It uses text mining techniques to analyse the detailed history of textual modifications within files. This information allows us to construct directed, weighted, and time-stamped networks, where a link signifies that one developer has edited a block of source code originally written by another developer. Our tool is applied in case studies of an Open Source and a commercial software project. We argue that it opens up a massive new source of high-resolution data on human collaboration patterns.

Abstract

We propose a novel way to measure the reputation of firms by using information about their ownership structure. Supported by the signaling theory, we argue that ownership relations channel reputation spillovers between shareholders and their invested companies. We model such reputation spillovers by means of a simple dynamics that runs on the ownership network, constructed from available data bases. We focus on the core of the global ownership network with 1'300 firms and 12'100 ownership links. Our method assigns a ownership-based reputation value to each firm, used to provide a quantitative reputation ranking. We compare our ranking with alternative rankings, to confirm that the top ranked firms are correctly identified. We also demonstrate that our reputation measure does not correlate substantially with operating revenue or control and thus provides additional information about firms.

Abstract

System design – the term immediately evokes associations with the freedoms of a divine creator. However, it is precisely this idea that already describes the problem: like any other design, system design must respect certain boundaries, but the complexity of the design is far greater. Before we can even formulate systems design questions, we must first clarify what we want to mean by a system, which approach we choose to system modelling, and how we validate these models. This addresses the methodological-technical aspects of systems design. The methodological-critical perspective focuses on the limits of systems design. What do we actually want to achieve with systems design? It doesn't take long to draw up a wish list. But how meaningful or feasible are these wishes? Here, we must critically question our expectations.

Abstract

Active matter, as other types of self-organizing systems, relies on the take-up of energy that can be used for different actions, such as active motion or structure formation. Here we provide an agent-based framework to model these processes at different levels of organization, physical, biological and social, using the same dynamic approach. Driving variables describe the take-up, storage and conversion of energy, whereas driven variables describe the energy consuming activities. The stochastic dynamics of both types of variables follow a modified Langevin equation. Additional non-linear functions allow to encode system-specific hypotheses about the relation between driving and driven variables. To demonstrate the applicability of this framework, we recast a number of existing models of Brownian agents and Active Brownian Particles. Specifically, active motion, clustering and self-wiring of networks based on chemotactic interactions, online communication and polarization of opinions based on emotional influence are discussed. The framework allows to obtain critical parameters for active motion and the emergence of collective phenomena. This highlights the role of energy take-up and dissipation in obtaining different dynamic regimes.

Abstract

How are economic activities linked to geographic locations? To answer this question, we use a data-driven approach that builds on the information about location, ownership and economic activities of the world's 3,000 largest firms and their almost one million subsidiaries. From this information we generate a bipartite network of cities linked to economic activities. Analysing the structure of this network, we find striking similarities with nested networks observed in ecology, where links represent mutualistic interactions between species. This motivates us to apply ecological indicators to identify the unbalanced deployment of economic activities. Such deployment can lead to an over-representation of specific economic sectors in a given city, and poses a significant thread for the city's future especially in times when the over-represented activities face economic uncertainties. If we compare our analysis with external rankings about the quality of life in a city, we find that the nested structure of the city-firm network also reflects such information about the quality of life, which can usually be assessed only via dedicated survey-based indicators.

Abstract

This paper makes two important contributions to understand the mobility patterns of scientists. First, by combining two large-scale data sets covering the publications of 3.5 mio scientists over 60 years, we are able to reveal the geographical 'career paths' of scientists. Each path contains, on the individual level, information about the cities (resolved on real geographical space) and the time (in years) spent there. A statistical analysis gives empirical insights into the geographical distance scientists move for a new affiliation and their age when moving. From the individual career paths, we further reconstruct the world network of movements of scientists, where the nodes represent cities and the links in-and out-flow of scientists between cities. We analyze the topological properties of this network with respect to degree distribution, local clustering coefficients, path lengths and assortativity. The second important contribution is an agent-based model that allows to reproduce the empirical findings, both on the level of scientists and of the network. The model considers that agents have a fitness and consider potential new locations if they allow to increase this fitness. Locations on the other hand rank agents against their fitness and consider them only if they still have a capacity for them. This leads to a matching problem which is solved algorithmically. Using empirical data to calibrate our model and to determine its initial conditions, we are able to validate the model against the measured distributions. This allows to interpret the model assumptions as microbased decision rules that explain the observed mobility patterns of scientists.

Abstract

Controllability, a basic property of various networked systems, has gained profound theoretical applications in complex social, technological, biological, and brain networks. Yet, little attention has been given to the control trajectory (route), along which a controllable system can be controlled from any initial to any final state, hampering the implementation of practical control. Here we systematically uncover the fundamental relations between control trajectory and several other key factors, such as the control distance between initial and final states ($\delta$), number of driver nodes, and the control time. The length ($\mathcal{L}$) and maximum distance to the initial state ($\mathcal{R}$) are employed to quantify the locality and globality of control trajectories. We analyze how the scaling behavior of the averaged $\mathcal{L}$ and $\mathcal{R}$ changes with increasing $\delta$ for different initial states. After showing the scaling behavior for each trajectory, we also provide the distributions of $\mathcal{L}$ and $\mathcal{R}$. Further attention is given to the control time $t_f$ and its influence on $\mathcal{L}$ and $\mathcal{R}$. Our results provide comprehensive insights in understanding control trajectories for complex networks, and pave the way to achieve practical control in various real systems.

Abstract

How big is the risk that a few initial failures of nodes in a network amplify to large cascades that span a substantial share of all nodes? Predicting the final cascade size is critical to ensure the functioning of a system as a whole. Yet, this task is hampered by uncertain or changing parameters and missing information. In infinitely large networks, the average cascade size can often be well estimated by established approaches building on local tree approximations and mean field approximations. Yet, as we demonstrate, in finite networks, this average does not even need to be a likely outcome. Instead, we find broad and even bimodal cascade size distributions. This phenomenon persists for system sizes up to 10 7 and different cascade models, i.e. it is relevant for most real systems. To show this, we derive explicit closed-form solutions for the full probability distribution of the final cascade size. We focus on two topological limit cases, the complete network representing a dense network with a very narrow degree distribution, and the star network representing a sparse network with a inhomogeneous degree distribution. Those topologies are of great interest, as they either minimize or maximize the average cascade size and are common motifs in many real world networks.

Abstract

To the extent that individuals interact with each other in prescribed ways, their collective social behavior can be modeled and analyzed. Twenty-four years ago Paul Krugman, who went on to receive the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, wrote, “Economics is harder than physics; luckily it is not quite as hard as sociology.”1 Thirteen years ago Doyne Farmer, Martin Shubik, and Eric Smith posed the question, Is economics the next physical science? (see Physics Today, September 2005, page 37). If you were skeptical then about sociology as the next physical science, you may be even more skeptical now.

Abstract

We propose a model that reflects two important processes in R&D activities of firms, the formation of R&D alliances and the exchange of knowledge as a result of these collaborations. In a data-driven approach, we analyze two large-scale data sets extracting unique information about 7500 R&D alliances and 5200 patent portfolios of firms. This data is used to calibrate the model parameters for network formation and knowledge exchange. We obtain probabilities for incumbent and newcomer firms to link to other incumbents or newcomers which are able to reproduce the topology of the empirical R&D network. The position of firms in a knowledge space is obtained from their patents using two different classification schemes, IPC in 8 dimensions and ISI-OST-INPI in 35 dimensions. Our dynamics of knowledge exchange assumes that collaborating firms approach each other in knowledge space at a rate $μ$ for an alliance duration $τ$. Both parameters are obtained in two different ways, by comparing knowledge distances from simulations and empirics and by analyzing the collaboration efficiency $\hat{C}_n$. This is a new measure, that takes also in account the effort of firms to maintain concurrent alliances, and is evaluated via extensive computer simulations. We find that R&D alliances have a duration of around two years and that the subsequent knowledge exchange occurs at a very low rate. Hence, a firm's position in the knowledge space is rather a determinant than a consequence of its R&D alliances. From our data-driven approach we also find model configurations that can be both realistic and optimized with respect to the collaboration efficiency $\hat{C}_n$. Effective policies, as suggested by our model, would incentivize shorter R&D alliances and higher knowledge exchange rates.

Abstract

Two node variables determine the evolution of cascades in random networks: a node's degree and threshold. Correlations between both fundamentally change the robustness of a network, yet, they are disregarded in standard analytic methods as local tree or heterogeneous mean field approximations because of the bad tractability of order statistics. We show how they become tractable in the thermodynamic limit of infinite network size. This enables the analytic description of node attacks that are characterized by threshold allocations based on node degree. Using two examples, we discuss possible implications of irregular phase transitions and different speeds of cascade evolution for the control of cascades.

Abstract

We present a framework to calculate the cascade size evolution for a large class of cascade models on random network ensembles in the limit of infinite network size. Our method is exact and applies to network ensembles with almost arbitrary degree distribution, degree-degree correlations and, in case of threshold models, for arbitrary threshold distribution. With our approach, we shift the perspective from the known branching process approximations to the iterative update of suitable probability distributions. Such distributions are key to capture cascade dynamics that involve possibly continuous quantities and that depend on the cascade history, e.g. if load is accumulated over time. As a proof of concept, we provide two examples: (a) Constant load models that cover many of the analytically tractable casacade models, and, as a highlight, (b) a fiber bundle model that was not tractable by branching process approximations before. Our derivations cover the whole cascade dynamics, not only their steady state. This allows to include interventions in time or further model complexity in the analysis.

Abstract

We study the role of geography in R&D networks by means of a quantitative, micro-geographic approach. Using a large database that covers international R&D collaborations from 1984 to 2009, we localize each actor precisely in space through its latitude and longitude. This allows us to analyze the R&D network at all geographic scales simultaneously. Our empirical results show that despite the high importance of the city level, transnational R&D collaborations at large distances are much more frequent than expected from similar networks. This provides evidence for the ambiguity of distance in economic cooperation which is also suggested by the existing literature. In addition we test whether the hypothesis of local buzz and global pipelines applies to the observed R&D network by calculating well-defined metrics from network theory.

Abstract

From the perspective of innovation economics evolving institutions, innovating entrepreneurs, technological change, and creative destruction are the driving force of economic growth (Schumpeter, 1942). To mitigate the uncertainty involved in the creation of new processes, products, or business models, innovation exhibits an intrinsic collaborative nature. Innovator networks form through formal and informal collaborations between different agents, including firms, institutions, universities, state agencies, inventors, and other stakeholders of the innovation system. Being embedded in a network enables these agents to coordinate innovative efforts, as well as to pool and jointly create knowledge.

Abstract

Users of social media are not only producers and consumers of online content, they also evaluate each other’s content. Some social media include the possibility to down vote or dislike the content posted by other users, posing the risk that users who receive dislikes might be more likely to become inactive, especially if the disliked content is about a person. We analyzed the data on more than 150,000 YouTube videos to understand how video impact and user incentives can be related to the possibility to dislike user content. We processed images related to videos to identify faces and quantify if evaluating content related to people is connected to disliking patterns. We found that videos with faces on their images tend to have less dislikes if they are posted by male users, but the effect is not present for female users. On the contrary, videos with faces and posted by female users attract more views and likes. Analyzing the probability of users to become inactive, we find that receiving dislikes is associated with users becoming inactive. This pattern is stronger when dislikes are given to videos with faces, showing that negative evaluations about people have a stronger association with user inactivity. Our results show that user evaluations in social media are a multi-faceted phenomenon that requires large-scale quantitative analyses, identifying under which conditions users disencourage other users from being active in social media.

Abstract

The authors develop an agent-based model to reproduce the size distribution of R&D alliances of firms. Agents are uniformly selected to initiate an alliance and to invite collaboration partners. These decide about acceptance based on an individual threshold that is compared with the utility expected from joining the current alliance. The benefit of alliances results from the fitness of the agents involved. Fitness is obtained from an empirical distribution of agent's activities. The cost of an alliance reflects its coordination effort. Two free parameters ac and a1 scale the costs and the individual threshold. If initiators receive R rejections of invitations, the alliance formation stops and another initiator is selected. The three free parameters (ac; a1; R) are calibrated against a large scale data set of about 15,000 firms engaging in about 15,000 R&D alliances over 26 years. For the validation of the model the authors compare the empirical size distribution with the theoretical one, using confidence bands, to find a very good agreement. As an asset of our agent-based model, they provide an analytical solution that allows to reduce the simulation effort considerably. The analytical solution applies to general forms of the utility of alliances. Hence, the model can be extended to other cases of alliance formation. While no information about the initiators of an alliance is available, the results indicate that mostly firms with high fitness are able to attract newcomers and to establish larger alliances.

Abstract

In engineering, the term "scaling" may be used to describe a relation between objects and their models. In the exact sciences, however, scaling is a systemic property, i.e. it relates to the system itself and not to our perception of it. Scaling describes how certain system properties change conditional on others, most notably the system size. Certain systems are characterized by a natural scale which remains constant even if the system size increases. Such systems are often described by the so-called normal distribution and are very predictable with respect to that scale, or quantity. Other systems are scale-free in the sense that no characteristic scale exists. Such systems are characterised by very broad distributions. This means everything can happen with a non-negligible probability. Such considerations imply that the system properties do not change with scale other than the way defined by the distributions. But complex systems, i.e. systems consisting of a large number of interacting elements (usually denoted as agents), also have the property of emergence. This describes the sudden occurrence of new system qualities once certain critical parameters are reached. This means, above a certain system size the system behaves completely different. Sometimes, it is very difficult to predict when this critical size is reached. Most real complex systems are characterized both by emergent properties and by scaling laws that do not simply follow a power-law behavior. Economic systems, for example, are often described by decreasing returns to scale. Conclusion: there are several limits to scaling: (i) natural scales, which are system immanent, (ii) critical parameters at which system properties change in a discontinuous manner, i.e. new system qualities emerge, (iii) decreasing returns to scale, which render any further growth unprofitable.

Abstract

The inference of network topologies from relational data is an important problem in data analysis. Exemplary applications include the reconstruction of social ties from data on human interactions, the inference of gene co-expression networks from DNA microarray data, or the learning of semantic relationships based on co-occurrences of words in documents. Solving these problems requires techniques to infer significant links in noisy relational data. In this short paper, we propose a new statistical modeling framework to address this challenge. It builds on generalized hypergeometric ensembles, a class of generative stochastic models that give rise to analytically tractable probability spaces of directed, multi-edge graphs. We show how this framework can be used to assess the significance of links in noisy relational data. We illustrate our method in two data sets capturing spatio-temporal proximity relations between actors in a social system. The results show that our analytical framework provides a new approach to infer significant links from relational data, with interesting perspectives for the mining of data on social systems.

Abstract

We analyze large-scale data sets about collaborations from two different domains: economics, specifically 22.000 R&D alliances between 14.500 firms, and science, specifically 300.000 co-authorship relations between 95.000 scientists. Considering the different domains of the data sets, we address two questions: (a) to what extent do the collaboration networks reconstructed from the data share common structural features, and (b) can their structure be reproduced by the same agent-based model. In our data-driven modeling approach we use aggregated network data to calibrate the probabilities at which agents establish collaborations with either newcomers or established agents. The model is then validated by its ability to reproduce network features not used for calibration, including distributions of degrees, path lengths, local clustering coefficients and sizes of disconnected components. Emphasis is put on comparing domains, but also sub-domains (economic sectors, scientific specializations). Interpreting the link probabilities as strategies for link formation, we find that in R&D collaborations newcomers prefer links with established agents, while in co-authorship relations newcomers prefer links with other newcomers. Our results shed new light on the long-standing question about the role of endogenous and exogenous factors (i.e., different information available to the initiator of a collaboration) in network formation.

Abstract

In this article we study to what extent the academic peer review pro-cess is influenced by social relations between the authors of a manuscript and the editor handling the manuscript. Taking the Open Access journal PlosOne as a case study, our analysis is based on a data set of more than 100,000 articles pub-lished between 2007 and 2015. Using available data on handling editor, submission and acceptance time of manuscripts, we study the question whether co-authorship relations between authors and the handling editor affect the manuscript handling time, i.e. the time taken between the submission and acceptance of a manuscript. Our analysis reveals (i) that editors handle papers co-authored by previous col-laborators significantly more often than expected at random, and (ii) that such prior co-author relations are significantly related to faster manuscript handling. Addressing the question whether these shorter manuscript handling times can be explained by the quality of publications, we study the number of citations and downloads which accepted papers eventually accumulate. Moreover, we consider the influence of additional (social) factors, such as the editor’s experience, the top-ical similarity between authors and editors, as well as reciprocal citation relations between authors and editors. Our findings show that, even when correcting for other factors like time, experience, and performance, prior co-authorship relations have a large and significant influence on manuscript handling times, speeding up the editorial decision on average by 19 days.

Abstract

Quantitative analysis of the empirical data from online social networks reveals the occurrence of group dynamics in which the user’s emotions are involved. Full understanding of the underlying mechanisms, however, remains a challenging task. Using agent-based computer simulations, in this work we study the dynamics of emotional communications in online social networks. The rules that guide how the agents interact, are motivated by actual online social systems. The realistic network structure and some key parameters are inferred from the empirical dataset compiled from the MySpace social network. An agent’s emotional state is characterized by two variables representing emotional arousal—reactivity to stimuli, and valence—attractiveness or averseness, by which a commonly known emotion can be identified. Elevated arousal triggers an agent’s action. In the simulations, each message is identified as carrying an agent’s emotion along a network link; an aggregated and continuously aging impact of these messages on the recipient agent is considered. Our results indicate that group behavior may arise from individual emotional actions of agents; the collective states appear, which are characterized by temporal correlations and predominantly positive emotions, in analogy to the empirical system; the driving signal—rate of the user stepping into the online world—has a profound effect on building the coherent behaviors that are observed in online social networks. Moreover, our simulations suggest that spreading patterns may differ for the emotions with the entirely different positive and negative emotional content.

Abstract

Online communication takes a variety of shapes in the different technological media that allow users interact with each other, with their friends, or with arbitrarily large groups. These serve as breeding grounds for collective emotions, in which large amounts of users share emotional states through time. We present our modeling framework for collective emotions in online communities, which can be adapted for the different kinds of online interaction present in the cyberspace. This framework allows the design of agent-based models, in which agents’ emotional states are represented according to psychological theories. This approach aims at a unification of modeling efforts, connecting the sentiment analysis of big data with psychological experiments, through tractable agent-based models. We illustrate the applications of this framework to different online communities, including product reviews, chatrooms, virtual realities, and social networking sites. We show how our model reproduces properties of collective emotions in the reviews of Amazon, and the group discussions of IRC channels. We comment the applications of this framework for data-driven simulation of emotions, and how we formulate testable hypotheses of emotion dynamics for future research on the field.

Abstract

The pervasive presence of online media in our society has transferred a significant part of political deliberation to online forums and social networking sites. This article examines popularity, reputation, and social influence on Twitter using large-scale digital traces from 2009 to 2016. We process network information on more than 40 million users, calculating new global measures of reputation that build on the D-core decomposition and the bow-tie structure of the Twitter follower network. We integrate our measurements of popularity, reputation, and social influence to evaluate what keeps users active, what makes them more popular, and what determines their influence. We find that there is a range of values in which the risk of a user becoming inactive grows with popularity and reputation. Popularity in Twitter resembles a proportional growth process that is faster in its strongly connected component, and that can be accelerated by reputation when users are already popular. We find that social influence on Twitter is mainly related to popularity rather than reputation, but that this growth of influence with popularity is sublinear. The explanatory and predictive power of our method shows that global network metrics are better predictors of inactivity and social influence, calling for analyses that go beyond local metrics like the number of followers.

Abstract

Drawing on a large database of publicly announced R&D alliances, we empirically investigate the evolution of R&D networks and the process of alliance formation in several manufacturing sectors over a 24-year period (1986-2009). Our goal is to empirically evaluate the temporal and sectoral robustness of a large set of network indicators, thus providing a more complete description of R&D networks with respect to the existing literature. We find that most network properties are not only invariant across sectors, but also independent of the scale of aggregation at which they are observed, and we highlight the presence of core-periphery architectures in explaining some properties emphasized in previous empirical studies (e.g. asymmetric degree distributions and small worlds). In addition, we show that many properties of R&D networks are characterized by a rise-and-fall dynamics with a peak in the mid-nineties. We find that such dynamics is driven by mechanisms of accumulative advantage, structural homophily and multiconnectivity. In particular, the change from the "rise" to the "fall" phase is associated to a structural break in the importance of multiconnectivity.

Abstract

This paper studies the selection of partners for R&D collaborations of firms both empirically, by analyzing a large data set of R&D alliances over 25 years, and theoretically, by utilizing an agent-based model of alliance formation. We quantify the topological position of a firm in the R&D network by means of the weighted k-core decomposition which assigns a coreness value to each firm. The evolution of these coreness values over time reconstructs the career path of individual firms, where lower coreness indicates a better integration of firms in an evolving R&D network. Using a large patent dataset, we demonstrate that coreness values strongly correlate with the number of patents of a firm. Analyzing coreness differences between firms and their partners, we identify a change in selecting partners: less integrated firms choose partners of similar coreness until they reach their best network position. After that, well integrated firms (with low coreness) choose preferably partners with high coreness, either newcomers or firms from the periphery. We use the agent-based model to test whether this change in behavior needs to be explained by means of strategic considerations, i.e. firms switching their strategy in choosing partners dependent on their network position. We find that the observed behavior can be well reproduced without such strategic considerations, this way challenging the role of strategies in explaining macro patterns of collaborations.

Abstract

We test the existence of anticipated shocks in online activity, a class of collective dynamics that does not fit in the state of the art theory on social response functions. We use data on shares and views to Youtube videos, measuring their time series to classify them according to their dynamical class. We find evidence of the existence of anticipated shocks, and that they are more likely to appear in word-of-mouth interaction than in attention dynamics. Our results show that not all exogenous events in online activity are unexpected, calling for new models that differentiate social interaction and attention dynamics.

Abstract

We study the changes in emotional states induced by reading and participating in online discussions, empirically testing a computational model of online emotional interaction. Using principles of dynamical systems, we quantify changes in valence and arousal through subjective reports, as recorded in three independent studies including 207 participants (110 female). In the context of online discussions, the dynamics of valence and arousal are composed of two forces: an internal relaxation towards baseline values independent of the emotional charge of the discussion, and a driving force of emotional states that depends on the content of the discussion. The dynamics of valence show the existence of positive and negative tendencies, while arousal increases when reading emotional content regardless of its polarity. The tendency of participants to take part in the discussion increases with positive arousal. When participating in an online discussion, the content of participants' expression depends on their valence, and their arousal significantly decreases afterwards as a regulation mechanism. We illustrate how these results allow the design of agent-based models to reproduce and analyze emotions in online communities. Our work empirically validates the microdynamics of a model of online collective emotions, bridging online data analysis with research in the laboratory.

Abstract

Statistical ensembles define probability spaces of all networks consistent with given aggregate statistics and have become instrumental in the analysis of relational data on networked systems. Their numerical and analytical study provides the foundation for the inference of topological patterns, the definition of network-analytic measures, as well as for model selection and statistical hypothesis testing. Contributing to the foundation of these important data science techniques, in this article we introduce generalized hypergeometric ensembles, a framework of analytically tractable statistical ensembles of finite, directed and weighted networks. This framework can be interpreted as a generalization of the classical configuration model, which is commonly used to randomly generate networks with a given degree sequence or distribution. Our generalization rests on the introduction of dyadic link propensities, which capture the degree-corrected tendencies of pairs of nodes to form edges between each other. Studying empirical and synthetic data, we show that our approach provides broad perspectives for community detection, model selection and statistical hypothesis testing.

Abstract

We study the influence of risk diversification on cascading failures in weighted complex networks, where weighted directed links represent exposures between nodes. These weights result from different diversification strategies and their adjustment allows us to reduce systemic risk significantly by topological means. As an example, we contrast a classical exposure diversification (ED) approach with a damage diversification (DD) variant. The latter reduces the loss that the failure of high degree nodes generally inflict to their network neighbors and thus hampers the cascade amplification. To quantify the final cascade size and obtain our results, we develop a branching process approximation taking into account that inflicted losses cannot only depend on properties of the exposed, but also of the failing node. This analytic extension is a natural consequence of the paradigm shift from individual to system safety. To deepen our understanding of the cascade process, we complement this systemic perspective by a mesoscopic one: an analysis of the failure risk of nodes dependent on their degree. Additionally, we ask for the role of these failures in the cascade amplification.

Abstract

This paper investigates the process of knowledge exchange in inter-firm Research and Development (R&D) alliances by means of an agent-based model. Extant research has pointed out that firms select alliance partners considering both network-related and network-unrelated features (e.g., social capital versus complementary knowledge stocks). In our agent-based model, firms are located in a metric knowledge space. The interaction rules incorporate an exploration phase and a knowledge transfer phase, during which firms search for a new partner and then evaluate whether they can establish an alliance to exchange their knowledge stocks. The model parameters determining the overall system properties are the rate at which alliances form and dissolve and the agents' interaction radius. Next, we define a novel indicator of performance, based on the distance traveled by the firms in the knowledge space. Remarkably, we find that - depending on the alliance formation rate and the interaction radius - firms tend to cluster around one or more attractors in the knowledge space, whose position is an emergent property of the system. And, more importantly, we find that there exists an inverted U-shaped dependence of the network performance on both model parameters.

Abstract

Through the analysis of collective upvotes and downvotes in multiple social media, we discover the bimodal regime of collective evaluations. When online content surpasses the local social context by reaching a threshold of collective attention, negativity grows faster with positivity, which serves as a trace of the burst of a filter bubble. To attain a global audience, we show that emotions expressed in online content has a significant effect and also play a key role in creating polarized opinions.

Remarks

Accepted as a poster.

Abstract

Urban structures encompass settlements, characterized by the spatial distribution of built-up areas, and also transportation structures, to connect these built-up areas. These two structures are very different in their origin and function, fulfilling complementary needs: (1) to access space and (2) to occupy space. Their evolution cannot be understood by looking at the dynamics of urban aggregations and transportation systems separately. Instead, existing built-up areas feed back on the further development of transportation structures, and the availability of the latter feeds back on the future growth of urban aggregations. To model this co-evolution, we propose an agent-based approach that builds on existing agent-based models for the evolution of trail systems and urban settlements. The key element in these separate approaches is a generalized communication of agents by means of an adaptive landscape. This landscape is only generated by the agents, but once it exists, it feeds back on their further actions. The emerging trail system or urban aggregation results as a self-organized structure from these collective interactions. In our co-evolutionary approach, we couple these two separate models by means of meta-agents that represent humans with their different demands for housing and mobility. We characterize our approach as a statistical ensemble approach, which allows to capture the potential of urban evolution in a bottom-up manner, but can be validated against empirical observations.

Abstract

We study cascades on a two-layer multiplex network, with asymmetric feedback that depends on the coupling strength between the layers. Based on an analytical branching process approximation, we calculate the systemic risk measured by the final fraction of failed nodes on a reference layer. The results are compared with the case of a single layer network that is an aggregated representation of the two layers. We find that systemic risk in the two-layer network is smaller than in the aggregated one only if the coupling strength between the two layers is small. Above a critical coupling strength, systemic risk is increased because of the mutual amplification of cascades in the two layers. We even observe sharp phase transitions in the cascade size that are less pronounced on the aggregated layer. Our insights can be applied to a scenario where firms decide whether they want to split their business into a less risky core business and a more risky subsidiary business. In most cases, this may lead to a drastic increase of systemic risk, which is underestimated in an aggregated approach.

Abstract

We analyze the controllability of a two-layer network, where driver nodes can be chosen randomly only from one layer. Each layer contains a scale-free network with directed links and the node dynamics depends on the incoming links from other nodes. We combine the in-degree and out-degree values to assign an importance value w to each node, and distinguish between peripheral nodes with low w and central nodes with high w. Based on numerical simulations, we find that the controllable part of the network is larger when choosing low w nodes to connect the two layers. The control is as efficient when peripheral nodes are driver nodes as it is for the case of more central nodes. However, if we assume a cost to utilize nodes that is proportional to their overall degree, utilizing peripheral nodes to connect the two layers or to act as driver nodes is not only the most cost-efficient solution, it is also the one that performs best in controlling the two-layer network among the different interconnecting strategies we have tested.

Abstract

Complex software development projects rely on the contribution of teams of developers, who are required to collaborate and coordinate their efforts. The productivity of such development teams, i.e., how their size is related to the produced output, is an important consideration for project and schedule management as well as for cost estimation. The majority of studies in empirical software engineering suggest that - due to coordination overhead - teams of collaborating developers become less productive as they grow in size. This phenomenon is commonly paraphrased as Brooks’ law of software project management, which states that “adding manpower to a software project makes it later”. Outside software engineering, the non-additive scaling of productivity in teams is often referred to as the Ringelmann effect, which is studied extensively in social psychology and organizational theory. Conversely, a recent study suggested that in Open Source Software (OSS) projects, the productivity of developers increases as the team grows in size. Attributing it to collective synergetic effects, this surprising finding was linked to the Aristotelian quote that “the whole is more than the sum of its parts”. Using a data set of 58 OSS projects with more than 580,000 commits contributed by more than 30,000 developers, in this article we provide a large-scale analysis of the relation between size and productivity of software development teams. Our findings confirm the negative relation between team size and productivity previously suggested by empirical software engineering research, thus providing quantitative evidence for the presence of a strong Ringelmann effect. Using fine-grained data on the association between developers and source code files, we investigate possible explanations for the observed relations between team size and productivity. In particular, we take a network perspective on developer-code associations in software development teams and show that the magnitude of the decrease in productivity is likely to be related to the growth dynamics of co-editing networks which can be interpreted as a first-order approximation of coordination requirements.

Abstract

We study properties of multi-layered, interconnected networks from an ensemble perspective, i.e. we analyze ensembles of multi-layer networks that share similar aggregate characteristics. Using a diffusive process that evolves on a multi-layer network, we analyze how the speed of diffusion depends on the aggregate characteristics of both intra- and inter-layer connectivity. Through a block-matrix model representing the distinct layers, we construct transition matrices of random walkers on multi-layer networks, and estimate expected properties of multi-layer networks using a mean-field approach. In addition, we quantify and explore conditions on the link topology that allow to estimate the ensemble average by only considering aggregate statistics of the layers. Our approach can be used when only partial information is available, like it is usually the case for real-world multi-layer complex systems.

Abstract

We develop an agent-based model to reproduce the processes of link formation and knowledge exchange in a Research and Development (R&D) inter-organizational network. In our model, agents form links based on their network features, i.e. their belonging to one of the network's circles of influence and their previous alliance history, and then exchange knowledge with their partners, thus modifying their positions in a metric knowledge space. Furthermore, we validate the model against real data using a two-step approach. Through the Thomson Reuters SDC alliance dataset, we estimate the model parameters related to the link formation, thus reproducing the topology of the resulting R&D network. Subsequently, using the NBER data on firm patents, we estimate the parameters related to the knowledge exchange process, thus evaluating the rate at which firms exchange knowledge and the duration of the R&D alliances themselves. The underlying knowledge space that we consider in our real example is defined by IPC patent classes, allowing for a precise quantification of every firm's knowledge position. Our novel data-driven approach allows us to unveil the complex interdependencies between the firms' network embeddedness and their technological positions. Through the validation of our model, we find that real R&D alliances have a duration of around two years, and that the subsequent knowledge exchange occurs at a very low rate. Most of the alliances, indeed, have no consequence on the partners' knowledge positions: this suggests that a firm's position - evaluated through its patents - is rather a determinant than a consequence of its R&D alliances. Finally, we propose an indicator of collaboration performance for the whole network. We find that the real R&D network does not maximize such an indicator. Our study shows that there exist configurations that can be both realistic and optimized with respect to the collaboration performance. Effective policies to obtain an optimized collaboration network - as suggested by our model - would incentivize shorter R&D alliances and higher knowledge exchange rates, for instance including rewards for quick co-patenting by allied firms.

Abstract

Metastasizing tumor cells migrate through the surrounding tissue and extracellular matrix toward the blood vessels, in order to colonize distant organs. They typically move in a dense environment, filled with other cells. In this work we study cooperative effects between neighboring cells of different types, migrating in a maze-like environment with directional cue. Using a computerized model, we measure the percentage of cells that arrive to the defined target, for different mesenchymal/amoeboid ratios. Wall degradation of mesenchymal cells, as well as motility of both types of cells, are coupled to metabolic energy-like resource level. We find that indirect cooperation emerges in mid-level energy, as mesenchymal cells create paths that are used by amoeboids. Therefore, we expect to see a small population of mesenchymals kept in a mostly-amoeboid population. We also study different forms of direct interaction between the cells, and show that energy-dependent interaction strength is optimal for the migration of both mesenchymals and amoeboids. The obtained characteristics of cellular cluster size are in agreement with experimental results. We therefore predict that hybrid states, e.g. epithelial-mesenchymal, should be utilized as a stress-response mechanism.

Abstract

Counterparty risk denotes the risk that a party defaults in a bilateral contract. This risk not only depends on the two parties involved, but also on the risk from various other contracts each of these parties holds. In rather informal markets, such as the OTC (over-the-counter) derivative market, institutions only report their aggregated quarterly risk exposure, but no details about their counterparties. Hence, little is known about the diversification of counterparty risk. In this paper, we reconstruct the weighted and time-dependent network of counterparty risk in the OTC derivatives market of the United States between 1998 and 2012. To proxy unknown bilateral exposures, we first study the co-occurrence patterns of institutions based on their quarterly activity and ranking in the official report. The network obtained this way is further analysed by a weighted k-core decomposition, to reveal a core-periphery structure. This allows us to compare the activity-based ranking with a topology-based ranking, to identify the most important institutions and their mutual dependencies. We also analyse correlations in these activities, to show strong similarities in the behavior of the core institutions. Our analysis clearly demonstrates the clustering of counterparty risk in a small set of about a dozen US banks. This not only increases the default risk of the central institutions, but also the default risk of peripheral institutions which have contracts with the central ones. Hence, all institutions indirectly have to bear (part of) the counterparty risk of all others, which needs to be better reflected in the price of OTC derivatives.

Remarks

Find the Supporting Information at DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0136638.s001

Abstract

Dodds et al. (1) present a universal positivity bias—in 10 human languages—that they claim is independent of word frequency. This result contradicts previous findings (2, 3) in which a relationship between word happiness and frequency is reported for a variety of languages and large-scale datasets. To better understand this contradiction, we reanalyze the labMT (language assessment by Mechanical Turk) data produced in Dodds et al. (1) against a larger reference lexicon (3). Our reanalysis shows that the data used in Dodds et al. (1) does not support their claims.

Abstract

Viral marketing seeks to maximize the spread of a campaign through an online social network, often targeting influential nodes with high centrality. In this article, we analyze behavioral aspects of influential users in trust-based product reviews communities, quantifying emotional expression, helpfulness, and user activity level. We focus on two independent product review communities, Dooyoo and Epinions, in which users can write product reviews and define trust links to filter product recommendations. Following the patterns of social contagion processes, we measure user social influence by means of the k-shell decomposition of trust networks. For each of these users, we apply sentiment analysis to extract their extent of positive, negative, and neutral emotional expression. In addition, we quantify the level of feedback they received in their reviews, the length of their contributions, and their level of activity over their lifetime in the community. We find that users of both communities exhibit a large heterogeneity of social influence, and that helpfulness votes and age are significantly better predictors of the influence of an individual than sentiment. The most active of the analyzed communities shows a particular structure, in which the inner core of users is qualitatively different from its periphery in terms of a stronger positive and negative emotional expression. These results suggest that both objective and subjective aspects of reviews are relevant to the communication of subjective experience.

Abstract

Non-linear voter models assume that the opinion of an agent depends on the opinions of its neighbors in a non-linear manner. This allows for voting rules different from majority voting. While the linear voter model is known to reach consensus, non-linear voter models can result in the coexistence of opposite opinions. Our aim is to derive approximations to correctly predict the time dependent dynamics, or at least the asymptotic outcome, of such local interactions. Emphasis is on a probabilistic approach to decompose the opinion distribution in a second-order neighborhood into lower-order probability distributions. This is compared with an analytic pair approximation for the expected value of the global fraction of opinions and a mean-field approximation. Our reference case is averaged stochastic simulations of a one-dimensional cellular automaton. We find that the probabilistic second-order approach captures the dynamics of the reference case very well for different non-linearities, i.e., for both majority and minority voting rules, which only partly holds for the first-order pair approximation and not at all for the mean-field approximation. We further discuss the interesting phenomenon of a correlated coexistence, characterized by the formation of large domains of opinions that dominate for some time, but slowly change.

Abstract

The availability of data on digital traces is growing to unprecedented sizes, but inferring actionable knowledge from large-scale data is far from being trivial. This is especially important for computational finance, where digital traces of human behaviour offer a great potential to drive trading strategies. We contribute to this by providing a consistent approach that integrates various datasources in the design of algorithmic traders. This allows us to derive insights into the principles behind the profitability of our trading strategies. We illustrate our approach through the analysis of Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency known for its large price fluctuations. In our analysis, we include economic signals of volume and price of exchange for USD, adoption of the Bitcoin technology and transaction volume of Bitcoin. We add social signals related to information search, word of mouth volume, emotional valence and opinion polarization as expressed in tweets related to Bitcoin for more than 3 years. Our analysis reveals that increases in opinion polarization and exchange volume precede rising Bitcoin prices, and that emotional valence precedes opinion polarization and rising exchange volumes. We apply these insights to design algorithmic trading strategies for Bitcoin, reaching very high profits in less than a year. We verify this high profitability with robust statistical methods that take into account risk and trading costs, confirming the long-standing hypothesis that trading-based social media sentiment has the potential to yield positive returns on investment.

Remarks

Online visualization at www.sg.ethz.ch/btc

Abstract

Political polarization is traditionally analyzed through the ideological stances of groups and parties, but it also has a behavioral component that manifests in the interactions between individuals. We present an empirical analysis of the digital traces of politicians in politnetz.ch, a Swiss online platform focused on political activity, in which politicians interact by creating support links, comments, and likes. We analyze network polarization as the level of intra-party cohesion with respect to inter-party connectivity, finding that supports show a very strongly polarized structure with respect to party alignment. The analysis of this multiplex network shows that each layer of interaction contains relevant information, where comment groups follow topics related to Swiss politics. Our analysis reveals that polarization in the layer of likes evolves in time, increasing close to the federal elections of 2011. Furthermore, we analyze the internal social network of each party through metrics related to hierarchical structures, information efficiency, and social resilience. Our results suggest that the online social structure of a party is related to its ideology, and reveal that the degree of connectivity across two parties increases when they are close in the ideological space of a multi-party system.

Abstract

Recent grassroots movements have suggested that online social networks might play a key role in their organization, as adherents have a fast, many-to-many, communication channel to help coordinate their mobilization. The structure and dynamics of the networks constructed from the digital traces of protesters have been analyzed to some extent recently. However, less effort has been devoted to the analysis of the semantic content of messages exchanged during the protest. Using the data obtained from a microblogging service during the brewing and active phases of the 15M movement in Spain, we perform the first large scale test of theories on collective emotions and social interaction in collective actions. Our findings show that activity and information cascades in the movement are larger in the presence of negative collective emotions and when users express themselves in terms related to social content. At the level of individual participants, our results show that their social integration in the movement, as measured through social network metrics, increases with their level of engagement and of expression of negativity. Our findings show that non-rational factors play a role in the formation and activity of social movements through online media, having important consequences for viral spreading.

Abstract

We develop a model of innovation communities which allows us to address in a systematic way the influence of users and developers as well as communication between and within these groups. Based on this model, we derive a formal approach to quantify communication flows, community activity and community turnover. These measures are calculated using the data of 100 open source software projects. Our empirical analysis shows that: (i) Users play indeed a predominant role in communication, which points towards the vivid role of an active user community; (ii) communication is highly concentrated, which points towards the importance of active individuals and (iii) community turnover exhibits only little correlation with community segregation, which may allow to benefit from high turnover rates while keeping negative effects small. We argue that insight from this extensive analysis not only complements existing case studies, it also provides a reference frame to put these singular results into perspective when aiming at generalizations.

Abstract

The measurement of information flows within moving animal groups has recently been a topic of considerable interest, and it has become clear that the individual(s) that drive collective movement may change over time, and that such individuals may not necessarily always lead from the front. However, methods to quantify the influence of specific individuals on the behaviour of other group members and the direction of information flow in moving group, are lacking on the level of empirical studies and theoretical models. Using high spatio-temporal resolution GPS trajectories of foraging meerkats, Suricata suricatta, we provide an information-theoretic framework to identify dynamical coupling between animals independent of their relative spatial positions. Based on this identification, we then compare designations of individuals as either drivers or responders against designations provided by the relative spatial position. We find that not only does coupling occur both from the frontal to the trailing individuals and vice versa, but also that the coupling direction is a non-linear function of the relative position. This provides evidence for (i) intermittent fluctuation of the coupling strength and (ii) alternation in the coupling direction within foraging meerkat pairs. The framework we introduce allows for a detailed description of the dynamical patterns of mutual influence between all pairs of individuals within moving animal groups. We argue that applying an information-theoretic perspective to the study of coordinated phenomena in animal groups will eventually help to understand cause and effect in collective behaviour.

Abstract

The excessive increase of leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions since it amplifies potential investment losses. On the other side, portfolio diversification acts to mitigate these losses. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be considered independent. Based on the structural framework by Merton (1974), we propose a model in which these correlations arise from overlaps in banks’ portfolios. Our main result is the finding of a critical level of diversification that separates two regimes: (i) a safe regime in which a properly chosen diversification strategy offsets the higher systemic risk engendered by increased leverage and (ii) a risky regime in which an inadequate diversification strategy and/or adverse market conditions, such as market size, market volatility and time horizon, cannot compensate the same increase in leverage. Our results are of relevance for financial regulators especially because the critical level of diversification may not coincide with the one that is individually optimal.

Abstract

The extraction of relevant knowledge from the increasingly large amount of information available in information repositories is one of the big challenges of our time. Although it is clear that the social and the information layer of collaborative knowledge spaces like the World Wide Web (WWW), scholarly publication databases or Online Social Networks (OSNs) are inherently coupled and thus inseparable, the question how the ranking and retrieval of information is influenced by the structure and dynamics of the social systems that create it has been addressed at most partially. In this talk, we will highlight associated research questions and challenges from an ethical, social and computer science perspective and introduce a multiplex network perspective that integrates both the social and the semantic layer of social information systems.

Abstract

We address the question to what extent the success of scientific articles is due to social influence. Analyzing a data set of over 100000 publications from the field of Computer Science, we study how centrality in the coauthorship network differs between authors who have highly cited papers and those who do not. We further show that a machine learning classifier, based only on coauthorship network centrality measures at time of publication, is able to predict with high precision whether an article will be highly cited five years after publication. By this we provide quantitative insight into the social dimension of scientific publishing - challenging the perception of citations as an objective, socially unbiased measure of scientific success.

Abstract

The problem of online privacy is often reduced to individual decisions to hide or reveal personal information in online social networks (OSNs). However, with the increasing use of OSNs, it becomes more important to understand the role of the social network in disclosing personal information that a user has not revealed voluntarily: How much of our private information do our friends disclose about us, and how much of our privacy is lost simply because of online social interaction? Without strong technical effort, an OSN may be able to exploit the assortativity of human private features, this way constructing shadow profiles with information that users chose not to share. Furthermore, because many users share their phone and email contact lists, this allows an OSN to create full shadow profiles for people who do not even have an account for this OSN. We empirically test the feasibility of constructing shadow profiles of sexual orientation for users and non-users, using data from more than 3 Million accounts of a single OSN. We quantify a lower bound for the predictive power derived from the social network of a user, to demonstrate how the predictability of sexual orientation increases with the size of this network and the tendency to share personal information. This allows us to define a privacy leak factor that links individual privacy loss with the decision of other individuals to disclose information. Our statistical analysis reveals that some individuals are at a higher risk of privacy loss, as prediction accuracy increases for users with a larger and more homogeneous first-and second-order neighborhood of their social network. While we do not provide evidence that shadow profiles exist at all, our results show that disclosing of private information is not restricted to an individual choice, but becomes a collective decision that has implications for policy and privacy regulation.

Abstract

Every day, millions of Internet users leave online traces that are publicly accessible. Data about forum comments, video downloads, or product reviews provide a valuable insight into human online behavior. The retrieval of datasets of unprecedented size may eventu- ally also allow testing of hypotheses or validation of theories that have been developed in the social sciences, for example, about preferences, social influence (Lorenz, 2009; Onnela & Reed-Tsochas, 2010), trust, and cooperation (Walter, Battiston, Yildirim, & Schweitzer, 2011). This recent scientific development has led to the emerging field of computational social science (Lazer et al., 2009) which combines methods and tools from different tech- nical and social disciplines. Also, psychology can benefit from this development by get- ting access to data without designing expensive experimental setups of limited size. For example, the analysis of Twitter messages allows studying the influence of the circadian cycles on human mood (Golder & Macy, 2011), and sentiment analysis of large-scale datasets reveals patterns of emotional expression predicted by earlier theories (Garcia, Garas, & Schweitzer, 2012).

Abstract

Established open source software (OSS) projects can grow in size if new developers join, but also the number of OSS projects can grow if developers choose to found new projects. We discuss to what extent an established model for firm growth can be applied to the dynamics of OSS projects. Our analysis is based on a large-scale data set from SourceForge (SF) consisting of monthly data for 10 years, for up to 360,000 OSS projects and up to 340,000 developers. Over this time period, we find an exponential growth both in the number of projects and developers, with a remarkable increase of single-developer projects after 2009. We analyze the monthly entry and exit rates for both projects and developers, the growth rate of established projects and the monthly project size distribution. To derive a prediction for the latter, we use modeling assumptions of how newly entering developers choose to either found a new project or to join existing ones. Our model applies only to collaborative projects that are deemed to grow in size by attracting new developers. We verify, by a thorough statistical analysis, that the Yule–Simon distribution is a valid candidate for the size distribution of collaborative projects except for certain time periods where the modeling assumptions no longer hold. We detect and empirically test the reason for this limitation, i.e., the fact that an increasing number of established developers found additional new projects after 2009.

Abstract

Modular design is a desirable characteristic of complex software systems that can significantly improve their comprehensibility, maintainability and thus quality. While many software systems are initially created in a modular way, over time modularity typically degrades as components are reused outside the context where they were created. In this paper, we propose an automated strategy to remodularize software based on move refactoring, i.e. moving classes between packages without changing any other aspect of the source code. Taking a complex systems perspective, our approach is based on complex networks theory applied to the dynamics of software modular structures and its relation to an n-state spin model known as the Potts Model. In our approach, nodes are probabilistically moved between modules with a probability that nonlinearly depends on the number and module membership of their adjacent neighbors. The latter are defined by the underlying network of software dependencies. To validate our method, we apply it to a dataset of 39 Java open source projects in order to optimize their modularity. Comparing the source code generated by the developers with the optimized code resulting from our approach, we find that modularity (i.e. quantified in terms of a standard measure from the study of complex networks) improves on average by 166+-77 percent. In order to facilitate the application of our method in practical studies, we provide a freely available Eclipse plug-in.

Abstract

Models of opinion formation are used to investigate many collective phenomena. While social influence often constitutes a basic mechanism, its implementation differs between the models. In this paper, we provide a general framework of social influence inspired by the social psychological concept of cognitive dissonance.We only premise that individuals strive to minimize dissonance resulting from different opinions compared to neighbor individuals in a given social network. Within a game theoretic context, we show that our concept of dissonance reduction exhibits the basic properties of a coordination process. We further show that different models of opinion formation can be represented as best response dynamics within our general framework. Thus, we offer a unifying perspective on heterogeneous models and link them to rational choice theory.

Abstract

We develop an agent-based model of strategic link formation in Research and Development (R&D) networks. Empirical evidence has shown that the growth of these networks is driven by mechanisms which are both endogenous to the system (that is, depending on existing alliances patterns) and exogenous (that is, driven by an exploratory search for newcomer firms). Extant research to date has not investigated both mechanisms simultaneously in a comparative manner. To overcome this limitation, we develop a general modeling framework to shed light on the relative importance of these two mechanisms. We test our model against a comprehensive dataset, listing cross-country and cross-sectoral R&D alliances from 1984 to 2009. Our results show that by fitting only three macroscopic properties of the network topology, this framework is able to reproduce a number of micro-level measures, including the distributions of degree, local clustering, path length and component size, and the emergence of network clusters. Furthermore, by estimating the link probabilities towards newcomers and established firms from the data, we find that endogenous mechanisms are predominant over the exogenous ones in the network formation, thus quantifying the importance of existing structures in selecting partner firms.

Abstract

Recent research has highlighted limitations of studying complex systems with time-varying topologies from the perspective of static, time-aggregated networks. Non-Markovian characteristics resulting from the ordering of interactions in temporal networks were identified as one important mechanism that alters causality and affects dynamical processes. So far, an analytical explanation for this phenomenon and for the significant variations observed across different systems is missing. Here we introduce a methodology that allows to analytically predict causality-driven changes of diffusion speed in non-Markovian temporal networks. Validating our predictions in six data sets we show that compared with the time-aggregated network, non-Markovian characteristics can lead to both a slow-down or speed-up of diffusion, which can even outweigh the decelerating effect of community structures in the static topology. Thus, non-Markovian properties of temporal networks constitute an important additional dimension of complexity in time-varying complex systems.

Abstract

We study a system in which N agents have to decide between two strategies θ_(i) (i ∈ 1... N), for defection or cooperation, when interacting with other n agents (either spatial neighbors or randomly chosen ones). After each round, they update their strategy responding nonlinearly to two different information sources: (i) the payoff a_(i)(θ_(i), f_(i)) received from the strategic interaction with their n counterparts, (ii) the fraction f_(i) of cooperators in this interaction. For the latter response, we assume social herding, i.e. agents adopt their strategy based on the frequencies of the different strategies in their neighborhood, without taking into account the consequences of this decision. We note that f_(i) already determines the payoff, so there is no additional information assumed. A parameter ζ defines to what level agents take the two different information sources into account. For the strategic interaction, we assume a Prisoner's Dilemma game, i.e. one in which defection is the evolutionary stable strategy. However, if the additional dimension of social herding is taken into account, we find instead a stable outcome where cooperators are the majority. By means of agent-based computer simulations and analytical investigations, we evaluate the critical conditions for this transition towards cooperation. We find that, in addition to a high degree of social herding, there has to be a nonlinear response to the fraction of cooperators. We argue that the transition to cooperation in our model is based on less information, i.e. on agents which are not informed about the payoff matrix, and therefore rely on just observing the strategy of others, to adopt it. By designing the right mechanisms to respond to this information, the transition to cooperation can be remarkably enhanced.

Abstract

We study the role of hierarchical structures in a simple model of collective consensus formation based on the bounded confidence model with continuous individual opinions. For the particular variation of this model considered in this paper, we assume that a bias towards an extreme opinion is introduced whenever two individuals interact and form a common decision. As a simple proxy for hierarchical social structures, we introduce a two-step decision making process in which in the second step groups of like-minded individuals are replaced by representatives once they have reached local consensus, and the representatives in turn form a collective decision in a downstream process. We find that the introduction of such a hierarchical decision making structure can improve consensus formation, in the sense that the eventual collective opinion is closer to the true average of individual opinions than without it. In particular, we numerically study how the size of groups of like-minded individuals being represented by delegate individuals affects the impact of the bias on the final population-wide consensus. These results are of interest for the design of organisational policies and the optimisation of hierarchical structures in the context of group decision making.

Abstract

We empirically analyze five online communities: Friendster, Livejournal, Facebook, Orkut, Myspace, to identify causes for the decline of social networks. We define social resilience as the ability of a community to withstand changes. We do not argue about the cause of such changes, but concentrate on their impact. Changes may cause users to leave, which may trigger further leaves of others who lost connection to their friends. This may lead to cascades of users leaving. A social network is said to be resilient if the size of such cascades can be limited. To quantify resilience, we use the k-core analysis, to identify subsets of the network in which all users have at least k friends. These connections generate benefits (b) for each user, which have to outweigh the costs (c) of being a member of the network. If this difference is not positive, users leave. After all cascades, the remaining network is the k-core of the original network determined by the cost-to-benefit c/b ratio. By analysing the cumulative distribution of k-cores we are able to calculate the number of users remaining in each community. This allows us to infer the impact of the c/b ratio on the resilience of these online communities. We find that the different online communities have different k-core distributions. Consequently, similar changes in the c/b ratio have a different impact on the amount of active users. As a case study, we focus on the evolution of Friendster. We identify time periods when new users entering the network observed an insufficient c/b ratio. This measure can be seen as a precursor of the later collapse of the community. Our analysis can be applied to estimate the impact of changes in the user interface, which may temporarily increase the c/b ratio, thus posing a threat for the community to shrink, or even to collapse.

Abstract

We analyse the relation between the emotions and the activity of contributors in the Open Source Software project Gentoo. Our case study builds on extensive data sets from the project's bug tracking platform Bugzilla, to quantify the activity of contributors, and its mail archives, to quantify the emotions of contributors by means of sentiment analysis. The Gentoo project is known for a considerable drop in development performance after the sudden retirement of a central contributor. We analyse how this event correlates with the negative emotions, both in bilateral email discussions with the central contributor, and at the level of the whole community of contributors. We then extend our study to consider the activity patters on Gentoo contributors in general. We find that contributors are more likely to become inactive when they express strong positive or negative emotions in the bug tracker, or when they deviate from the expected value of emotions in the mailing list. We use these insights to develop a Bayesian classifier that detects the risk of contributors leaving the project. Our analysis opens new perspectives for measuring online contributor motivation by means of sentiment analysis and for real-time predictions of contributor turnover in Open Source Software projects.

Abstract

External or internal shocks may lead to the collapse of a system consisting of many agents. If the shock hits only one agent initially and causes it to fail, this can induce a cascade of failures among neighoring agents. Several critical constellations determine whether this cascade remains finite or reaches the size of the system, i.e. leads to systemic risk. We investigate the critical parameters for such cascades in a simple model, where agents are characterized by an individual threshold $$theta_i determining their capacity to handle a load $$alpha$$theta_i with 1-$$alpha being their safety margin. If agents fail, they redistribute their load equally to K neighboring agents in a regular network. For three different threshold distributions P($$theta), we derive analytical results for the size of the cascade, X(t), which is regarded as a measure of systemic risk, and the time when it stops. We focus on two different regimes, (i) EEE, an external extreme event where the size of the shock is of the order of the total capacity of the network, and (ii) RIE, a random internal event where the size of the shock is of the order of the capacity of an agent. We find that even for large extreme events that exceed the capacity of the network finite cascades are still possible, if a power-law threshold distribution is assumed. On the other hand, even small random fluctuations may lead to full cascades if critical conditions are met. Most importantly, we demonstrate that the size of the "big" shock is not the problem, as the systemic risk only varies slightly for changes of 10 to 50 percent of the external shock. Systemic risk depends much more on ingredients such as the network topology, the safety margin and the threshold distribution, which gives hints on how to reduce systemic risk.

Abstract

Efficient bug triaging procedures are an important precondition for successful collaborative software engineering projects. Triaging bugs can become a laborious task particularly in open source software (OSS) projects with a large base of comparably inexperienced part-time contributors. In this paper, we propose an efficient and practical method to identify valid bug reports which a) refer to an actual software bug, b) are not duplicates and c) contain enough information to be processed right away. Our classification is based on nine measures to quantify the social embeddedness of bug reporters in the collaboration network. We demonstrate its applicability in a case study, using a comprehensive data set of more than 700, 000 bug reports obtained from the BUGZILLA installation of four major OSS communities, for a period of more than ten years. For those projects that exhibit the lowest fraction of valid bug reports, we find that the bug reporters’ position in the collaboration network is a strong indicator for the quality of bug reports. Based on this finding, we develop an automated classification scheme that can easily be integrated into bug tracking platforms and analyze its performance in the considered OSS communities. A support vector machine (SVM) to identify valid bug reports based on the nine measures yields a precision of up to 90.3% with an associated recall of 38.9%. With this, we significantly improve the results obtained in previous case studies for an automated early identification of bugs that are eventually fixed. Furthermore, our study highlights the potential of using quantitative measures of social organization in collaborative software engineering. It also opens a broad perspective for the integration of social network analysis in the design of support infrastructures.

Abstract

Social organization and division of labor crucially influence the performance of collaborative software engineering efforts. In this paper, we provide a quantitative analysis of the relation between social organization and performance in Gentoo, an Open Source community developing a Linux distribution. We study the structure and dynamics of collaborations as recorded in the project's bug tracking system over a period of ten years. We identify a period of increasing centralization after which most interactions in the community were mediated by a single central contributor. In this period of maximum centralization, the central contributor unexpectedly left the project, thus posing a significant challenge for the community. We quantify how the rise, the activity as well as the subsequent sudden dropout of this central contributor affected both the social organization and the bug handling performance of the Gentoo community. We analyze social organization from the perspective of network theory and augment our quantitative findings by interviews with prominent members of the Gentoo community which shared their personal insights.

Abstract

We demonstrate by mathematical analysis and systematic computer simulations that redistribution can lead to sustainable growth in a society. In accordance with economic models of risky human capital, we assume that dynamics of human capital is modeled as a multiplicative stochastic process which, in the long run, leads to the destruction of individual human capital. When agents are linked by fully redistributive taxation the situation might turn to individual growth in the long run. We consider that a government collects a proportion of income and reduces it by a fraction as costs for administration (efficiency losses). The remaining public good is equally redistributed to all agents. Sustainable growth is induced by redistribution despite the losses from the random growth process and despite administrative costs. Growth results from a portfolio effect. The findings are verified for three different tax schemes: proportional tax, taking proportionally more from the rich, and proportionally more from the poor. We discuss which of these tax schemes performs better with respect to maximize growth under a fixed rate of administrative costs, and the governmental income. This leads us to general conclusions about governmental decisions, the relation to public good games with free riding, and the function of taxation in a risk-taking society.

Abstract

How do humans respond to indirect social influence when making decisions? We analysed an experiment where subjects had to repeatedly guess the correct answer to factual questions, while having only aggregated information about the answers of others. While the response of humans to aggregated information is a widely observed phenomenon, it has not been investigated quantitatively, in a controlled setting. We found that the adjustment of individual guesses depends linearly on the distance to the mean of all guesses. This is a remarkable, and yet surprisingly simple, statistical regularity. It holds across all questions analysed, even though the correct answers differ in several orders of magnitude. Our finding supports the assumption that individual diversity does not affect the response to indirect social influence. It also complements previous results on the nonlinear response in information-rich scenarios. We argue that the nature of the response to social influence crucially changes with the level of information aggregation. This insight contributes to the empirical foundation of models for collective decisions under social influence.

Abstract

Time-evolving interaction patterns studied in different contexts can be well represented bytemporal networks in which nodes are intermittently connected. In this Letter we introducethe notion of betweenness preference in the study of temporal networks. It captures how likelya certain node is to mediate interactions between particular pairs of its neighboring nodes.We argue that betweenness preference is an important correlation to consider in the analysisof temporal network data. In particular, it allows to assess to which extent paths existing intime-aggregated, static representations of temporal networks are actually feasible based onthe underlying sequence of interactions. We argue that betweenness preference correlationsare present in empirical data sets. We further show that neglecting betweenness preferencewill lead to significantly wrong statements about spreading dynamics in temporal networks.

Abstract

In this paper we focus on diversity-induced resonance, which was recently found in bistable, excitable, and other physical systems. We study the appearance of this phenomenon in a purely economic model of cooperating and defecting agents. An agent's contribution to a public good is seen as a social norm, so defecting agents face a social pressure, which decreases if free riding becomes widespread. In this model, diversity among agents naturally appears because of the different sensitivities towards the social norm. We study the evolution of cooperation as a response to the social norm (i) for the replicator dynamics and (ii) for the logit dynamics by means of numerical simulations. Diversity-induced resonance is observed as a maximum in the response of agents to changes in the social norm as a function of the degree of heterogeneity in the population. We provide an analytical, mean-field approach for the logit dynamics and find very good agreement with the simulations. From a socioeconomic perspective, our results show that, counterintuitively, diversity in the individual sensitivity to social norms may result in a society that better follows such norms as a whole, even if part of the population is less prone to follow them.

Abstract

A huge flow of quantitative social, demographic and behavioral data is becoming available that traces the activities and interactions of individuals, social patterns, transportation infrastructures and travel fluxes. This has caused, together with innovative computational techniques and methods for modeling social actions in hybrid (natural and artificial) societies, a qualitative change in the ways we model socio-technical systems. For the first time, society can be studied in a comprehensive fashion that addresses social and behavioral complexity. In other words we are in the position to envision the development of large data and computational cyber infrastructure defining an exploratory of society that provides quantitative anticipatory, explanatory and scenario analysis capabilities ranging from emerging infectious disease to conflict and crime surges. The goal of the exploratory of society is to provide the basic infrastructure embedding the framework of tools and knowledge needed for the design of forecast/anticipatory/crisis management approaches to socio technical systems, supporting future decision making procedures by accelerating the scientific cycle that goes from data generation to predictions.

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between class dependency and change propagation (cochange) in software written in Java. On the one hand, we find a strong correlation between dependency and cochange. Furthermore, we provide empirical evidence for the propagation of change along paths of dependency. These findings support the often alleged role of dependencies as propagators of change. On the other hand, we find that approximately half of all dependencies are never involved in cochanges and that the vast majority of cochanges pertain to only a small percentage of dependencies. This means that inferring the cochange characteristics of a software architecture solely from its dependency structure results in a severely distorted approximation of cochange characteristics. Any metric which uses dependencies alone to pass judgment on the evolvability of a piece of Java software is thus unreliable. As a consequence, we suggest to always take both the change characteristics and the dependency structure into account when evaluating software architecture.

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Extended abstract

Abstract

We present a generalized method for calculating the k-shell structure of weighted networks. The method takes into account both the weight and the degree of a network, in such a way that in the absence of weights we resume the shell structure obtained by the classic k-shell decomposition. In the presence of weights, we show that the method is able to partition the network in a more refined way, without the need of any arbitrary threshold on the weight values. Furthermore, by simulating spreading processes using the susceptible-infectious-recovered model in four different weighted real-world networks, we show that the weighted k-shell decomposition method ranks the nodes more accurately, by placing nodes with higher spreading potential into shells closer to the core. In addition, we demonstrate our new method on a real economic network and show that the core calculated using the weighted k-shell method is more meaningful from an economic perspective when compared with the unweighted one.

Abstract

We analyze data about the micro-blogging site Twitter using sentiment extraction techniques. From an information per- spective, Twitter users are involved mostly in two processes: information creation and subsequent distribution (tweeting), and pure information distribution (retweeting), with pro- nounced preference to the first. However a rather substantial fraction of tweets are retweeted. Here, we address the role of the sentiment expressed in tweets for their potential after- math. We find that although the overall sentiment (polarity) does not influence the probability of a tweet to be retweeted, a new measure called emotional divergence does have an im- pact. In general, tweets with high emotional diversity have a better chance of being retweeted, hence influencing the dis- tribution of information.

Abstract

Wisdom of crowds refers to the phenomenon that the aggregate prediction or forecast of a group of individuals can be surprisingly more accurate than most individuals in the group, and sometimes - than any of the individuals comprising it. This article models the impact of social influence on the wisdom of crowds. We build a minimalistic representation of individuals as Brownian particles coupled by means of social influence. We demonstrate that the model can reproduce results of a previous empirical study. This allows us to draw more fundamental conclusions about the role of social influence: In particular, we show that the question of whether social influence has a positive or negative net effect on the wisdom of crowds is ill-defined. Instead, it is the starting configuration of the population, in terms of its diversity and accuracy, that directly determines how beneficial social influence actually is. The article further examines the scenarios under which social influence promotes or impairs the wisdom of crowds.

Abstract

We investigate the efficiency and stability of R&D networks in a model with network-dependent indirect spillovers. We show that the efficient network structure critically depends on the marginal cost of R&D collaborations. When the marginal cost is low, the complete graph is efficient, while high marginal costs imply that the efficient network is asymmetric and has a nested structure. Regarding the stability of network structures, we show the existence of both symmetric and asymmetric equilibria. The efficient network is stable for small industry size and small cost. In contrast, for large industry size, there is a wide region of cost in which the efficient network is not stable. This implies a divergence between efficiency and stability in large industries.

Abstract

We consider a population of agents that are heterogeneous with respect to (i) their strategy when interacting ng times with other agents in an iterated prisoners dilemma game, (ii) their spatial location on K different islands. After each generation, agents adopt strategies proportional to their average payoff received. Assuming a mix of two cooperating and two defecting strategies, we first investigate for isolated islands the conditions for an exclusive domination of each of these strategies and their possible coexistence. This allows to define a threshold frequency for cooperation that, dependent on ng and the initial mix of strategies, describes the outbreak of cooperation in the absense of migration. We then allow migration of a fixed fraction of the population after each generation. Assuming a worst case scenario where all islands are occupied by defecting strategies, whereas only one island is occupied by cooperators at the threshold frequency, we determine the optimal migration rate that allows the outbreak of cooperation on all islands. We further find that the threshold frequency divided by the number of islands, i.e. the relative effort for invading defecting islands with cooperators decreases with the number of islands. We also show that there is only a small bandwidth of migration rates, to allow the outbreak of cooperation. Larger migration rates destroy cooperation.