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Frank Schweitzer, Jens Steinbrink:
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Estimation of Megacity Growth: Simple Rules Versus Complex Phenomena
- in:
- Applied Geography 18/1 (1998) 69-82
- Abstract:
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The growth of large urban aggregates (megacities) is analogous to the
development of self-organized structures known in physics. Using
empirical data about changes in the built-up areas of different cities
as input, the self-organizing model employed here suggests that
megacities evolve towards a hierarchical form of spatial organization,
and provides estimates of the size of subclusters that compose the
urban aggregate. The rank-size cluster distribution that emerges can be
described by a Pareto coefficient which has a similar value for
different megacities. The coefficient may provide a useful complement
to structural measures of urbanization such as the fractal dimension.
Our model has been validated by reproducing the evolution of the Berlin
area over a period of 35 years (1910-1945). Using the same assumptions,
the evolution of the built-up area of Daegu (Korea) is simulated up to
the year 2010.
- Keywords:
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clusters, rank-size distribution, urban growth, urban morphology
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